Back to AI Flashcard MakerPsychology /Cognitive Psychology Chapter XII - Decision Making I
Cognitive Psychology Chapter XII - Decision Making I
This deck covers key concepts from cognitive psychology related to decision making, including theories, heuristics, biases, and reasoning processes.
fallacy
error in reasoning
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Key Terms
Term
Definition
fallacy
error in reasoning
Model of the homo economicus - 3 assumptions:
• HE is fully informed of all possible options and their outcomes • HE is infinitely sensitive to subtle distinctions among options • HE is fully rati...
Subjective expected utility theory:
human seek pleasure and avoid pain.
2 calculations people do in the subjective expected utility theory:
calculating: • subjective utility • subjective probability
Satisficing:
Stopping as soon as a satisfying solution is found.
We are rational but within limits:
bounded rationality
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| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
fallacy | error in reasoning |
Model of the homo economicus - 3 assumptions: | • HE is fully informed of all possible options and their outcomes • HE is infinitely sensitive to subtle distinctions among options • HE is fully rational |
Subjective expected utility theory: | human seek pleasure and avoid pain. |
2 calculations people do in the subjective expected utility theory: | calculating: • subjective utility • subjective probability |
Satisficing: | Stopping as soon as a satisfying solution is found. |
We are rational but within limits: | bounded rationality |
Tversky (1972): Elimination of Aspects | We eliminate alternatives by focusing on aspects, one at a time. |
In representativeness we judge the probability of an uncertain event according to: | • how obviously similar it is to the population from which it is drawn • does it reflect salient features of the process by which it is generated? |
Example for representativeness: | H T H H T H T looks more random than H H H H H T H . |
Base rate refers to … | • … prevalance of an event within its population. • Base rate of a heart attack with 60 is higher than with 10. |
Availability heuristics | judgements on the basis of how easily we can call to mind instances of sth. |
Anchoring | e.g. anchoring your estimate of a product of numbers on the first few items: 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 vs. 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 |
Framing | The way options are framed / presented influences your decision. |
3 Biases: | • illusiory correlation (seeing correlations where there arent) • overconfidence • hindsight bias (looking back on a situation we believe to must have seen all the signs leading up to it -> you wont learn anything from this) |
3 Fallacies: | • Gambler’s Fallacy / Hot Hand (having lost 5 times -> of course I must win now!) • conjunction fallacy (Lisa, the bank teller) • sunk-cost fallacy (I have already invested a lot in this car, let’s keep doing so) |
1 example for a FFH (fast and frugal heuristic) | take-the-best heuristic (choose the single, most important criterion and use it) |
Opportunity costs are the … | … prices paid for missed oportunities by choosing another. |
Successfull decision groups are: | • small • have open communication • members share a common mind-set • members identify with group • members agree on acceptable group behavior |
3 conditions that may lead to “groupthink”: | • an isolated, homogeneous group is empored to make a decision • high levels of stress • objective leadership is absent |
6 symptoms of groupthink: | • closed-mindedness • rationalization • squelching of dissent • formation of a “mindguard” (a group norm enforcer) • feeling invulnerable • feeling of total agreement among members |
Decision making in the brain? | anterior cingulate cortex |
Reasoning is the process of drawing conclusions … | … from principles and from evidence. |
Deductive reasoning | reasoning from one or more general statements to reach a logically certain conclusion |
conditional reasoning involves … | … if-then propositions |
modus ponens | if p, then q. | p therefore q |
modus tollens | if p, then q. | not q, therefore not p. |
Two deductive fallacies: | denying the antecedent: not p -> not q | affirming the consequent q -> p |
Rule to confirm in the Wason Selection Task: | "If a card has a consonant on one side, then it has an even number on the other side." |
Instead of formal inference rules it is said that people use … | … pragmatic reasoning schemas. |