Sales Forecasting for The Glass Slipper Restaurant: Seasonal Patterns, Trend Analysis, and Decomposition Modeling

Time series analysis for restaurant revenue prediction

Anna Wilson
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Sales Forecasting for The Glass Slipper Restaurant: Seasonal Patterns, Trend Analysis,and Decomposition ModelingFor years The Glass Slipper restaurant has operated in a resort community near a popular skiarea of New Mexico. The restaurant is busiest during the first 3 months of the year, when theski slopes are crowded and tourists flock to the area.When James and Deena Weltee built TheGlass Slipper, they had a vision of the ultimate dining experience. As the view of surroundingmountains was breathtaking, a high priority was placed on having large windows andproviding a spectacular view from anywhere inside the restaurant. Special attention was alsogiven to the lighting, colors, and overall ambiance, resulting in a truly magnificent experiencefor all who came to enjoy gourmet dining. Since its opening, The Glass Slipper has developedand maintained a reputation as one of the "must visit"places in that region of New Mexico.1. Prepare a graph of the data. On this same graph, plot a 12-month moving average forecast.Discuss any apparent trend and seasonal patterns.2. Use regression to develop a trend line that could be used to forecast monthly sales for thenext year. Is the slope of this line consistent with what you observed in question 1? If not,discuss a possible explanation.3. Use the multiplicative decomposition model on these data. Use this model to forecast salesfor each month of the next year. Discuss why the slope of the trend equation with this modelis so different from that of the trend equationin question 2.SOLUTION1.

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