Lesson 3 Unit 4 Public Opinion Activity

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Name _________________________________________________________________AP U.S. Government and PoliticsUNI I4:American PoliticalIdeologies and BeliefsPUBLIC OPINIONAssignment on Page 7

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MeasuringPublic OpinionCandidates running for office want to know their chances of winning and which groups support them.Once elected, members of Congress want to know how their constituents regard proposed bills andhow they view different types of government spending. These elected officials and their staff membersmonitor public opinion by reading constituents' letters and emails, holding town hall meetings, andreviewing surveys that are conducted in their states or districts. News organizations rely on, and evensponsor, polls to see where the public stands on important issues and political candidates.Putotic opinion data canaffect electionspolicy debates.Public opinion data is influenced by different types of scientific polls.cOpinion polls: measures public opinion on various issues. These polls gauge attitudes on issues or supportfor candidates in an election in a cross-section of the populationoBenchmark polls: often the first type of poll used by a political campaign, often before a potential candidatehas declared his or her intentions. Benchmark polls are used to measure support for a candidate and togather information about the issues that people care about. These polls create baseline views of acandidate.oTracking polls: follow how views of a candidate change during a campaign. Tracking polls used during thecourse of an election allow a campaign to "track" issues and how a candidate is faring with voters. Thiskind of information helps candidates make decisions for shaping the campaign, particularly in the finalweeks and days of the election.oExit polls: collect data on why people voted the way they did. Polling services and the news media usethese polls in national and statewide elections to help them offer predictions as well as to gain insight intothe thoughts and behaviors of voters or to identify and analyze how different demographics actually voted.Pottingdata is influenced by polling methodology.Polling methodology is more precise u)hen it includes:oAccurate sampling methods. Proper sampling techniques assure an accurate poll with a random and fairrepresentation of the population. The pollster takes a representative sample, a group of people meant torepresent the large group in question, known as the universe. A nationally representative sample often hasabout 1,500 respondents, while a sample to determine public opinion within a single state would be muchsmaller.Pollsters must also obtain a random sample. That is, every single member of the universe musthave an equal chance of selection into the sample.

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Even the most cautious survey with appropriate sampling techniques cannot guarantee absolute precision.Every poll has a sampling error, the difference between poll results, also called margin of error. The samplesize and the margin of error have an inverse relationship. That is, as the sample gets larger, the marg'r oferror decreases.oNeutral framing of questions. Reliable pollsters construct questionnaires with unbiased, property worded,and appropriately ordered questions. Pollsters phrase survey questions to avoid skewing the results. Thewording should be objective and not emotionally charged. How a question is framed also affects responses.Framing a question means posing it in a way that emphasizes a certain perspective. Poll results on suchemotional issues as abortion, same-sex marriage! and affirmative action can be distorted depending on thewording.oAccurate reporting: Reporting of poll data is clear and concise. When conclusions can be supported by thedata, polls seem more reliable.Evaluating Public opinionData(A/v)Poes foiling affect elections and policydebates?Polling canaffect Elections:Polls lend themselves to ''horse race1' news coverage in which elections are reported as if the most importantaspect iswhich candidate is in the lead.Critics of "horse race" journalism argue voters need more substance, suchas how a candidate views major issues that affect social policy or government spending.This kind of media coverage can translate into significant political influence as well. National polling influenceswhose voice will be heard at the televised debate and whose would be silenced. For example, early in theRepublican primary season in 2016, the first debate among the party's candidates was being planned with 17candidates tying for the nomination. The host of the debate, Fox News, decided to I'm t the number of participartsto 10. Fox would choose from the 17 candidates those who registered in the top spots from an average of fivenational polls as the debate grew near. If anyone in the top ten failed to earn at least a 5 percent ranking in thepolls, that person would be eliminated from the debate. In such debates, candidates with higher poll numbers arestationed toward the middle of the stage allowing them to appear on the screen more frequently and say more.National polling also exerts influence on elections through the bandwagon effect— a shift of support to a candidateor position holding the lead in public opinion polls ard therefore believed to be endorsed by many people. Themore popular a candidate or position, the more likely increasing numbers of people will "hop on the bandwagon"and add their support. People like to back a winning candidate.The bardwagon effect is also partly responsible for the direct link between a candidate's rank in national polls andthe ability to raise campaign finds. The higher the national ratings, the more campaign contributions a candidatecan elicit. The larger a candidate's war chest— the funds used to pay for a campaign— the more ads a candidatecan buy and the larger the staff a candidate can maintain. Both greatly influence the outcome of an election.

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