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Forecasting Monthly Sales for Prescott College Bookstore: Analyzing Trends and Predicting Future Performance

Forecasting methods applied to bookstore sales data for predictive insights.

Charlotte Garcia
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Forecasting Monthly Sales for Prescott College Bookstore: AnalyzingTrends and Predicting Future PerformanceUsing the provided historical sales data for the Prescott College Bookstore, conduct acomprehensive analysis of its sales trends andforecasting methods. Your response shouldinclude:1.A summary of the descriptive statistical analysis of the bookstore’s monthly salesdata.2.An interpretation of graphical representations, including trends and seasonal patternsobserved in the sales data.3.A comparison of the different forecasting techniques used (Moving Average, SimpleExponential Smoothing, Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing, and Winter’sExponential Smoothing), along with an evaluation of their accuracy based on errormetrics.4.A discussion on the implications of the forecasted sales for the next 12 months andhow this impacts the decision on whether to outsource the bookstore operations.5.Your final recommendation on whether the college should continue operating thebookstore or contract it out.Support your response with appropriate calculations, charts, and interpretations. Yourassignment should be1,500–2,000 wordsin length.

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IntroductionThe 25 year old college has operated its own bookstore for its entire history, known as the PrescottCollege Bookstore, but now finds that it may have to contract out the operation of the bookstore. Dr.MaryAnn Lane, vice president, knows that the college president want to “off-load the bookstore anduse the proceeds to finance a new bell tower on the campus.”However, the president of collegeknows that this particular company is known for “increasing the cost of textbooks and e-books by over20%” and Dr. Lane is worried that the students attending PC will not be able to afford those costlytextbooks. For this purpose, Dr. Lane has gathered the last several years of monthly sales (000s ofdollars) at the college bookstore for forecast the next 12 months of sales. To analyse this, I have beenasked to study the prior 4 years of monthly sales at the PC book store.Data AnalysisOn the basis of the prior 4 years of monthly sales data of Prescott Bookstore, we will do the graphicalanalysis as well as the descriptive analysis.The analysis aims at forecasting the monthly sales(thousands of dollars), by using various forecasting techniques and finally see which forecastingmethod is the most appropriate based on the error components of each of them.We will first start with the basic statistical descriptive of the historical data using theSales in SingleColumnand see what does thisinformation tells about the sales at the bookstore.Table 1: One variable Summary StatisticsOne Variable SummaryMonthly Sales ($000s)Mean182.08Variance1201.01Std. Dev.34.66Skewness0.07Kurtosis-0.30Median188Mode196
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